Wednesday 4rd March 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING EAST ANGLIA’s BIRDS NOW, SAY RESEARCHERS

Climate change is having a detectable impact on certain species already struggling to survive in East Anglia.
Today [Wednesday 4 March], a group of scientists is publishing findings that create the world’s first indicator of the climate change impacts on wildlife across Europe.
Published in the journal PloS ONE, scientists have shown a strong link between the already observed population changes of individual species and the projected range change associated with climate change, among a number of widespread and common European birds. By pulling both sets of data together, the team has compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe.

The findings of the report echo the current situation of certain species breeding in the East of England. Snipe are found to be performing worst across Europe. They can be found in good numbers at the RSPB Ouse and Nene Washes reserves in Cambridgeshire, as well as some parts of the Norfolk Broads, but are practically extinct elsewhere in the region.
Willow tit and lesser spotted woodpecker are also in the top ten worst performing European species. Both species still breed in East Anglia but in a dwindling number of sites.
Cetti’s warbler, currently found breeding in small numbers in the Norfolk Broads, is predicted as likely to increase its range.

The region’s relative nearness to mainland Europe means it will be one of the first parts of the UK to see other species attempt to extend their range as our climate changes.
The exotic-looking hoopoe is also likely to extend its range, possibly making it up to Lincolnshire, as are Sardinian warblers, subalpine warblers and bee-eaters.
Erica Howe, of RSPB East of England, said: “While we may soon start to see colourful and exotic-looking hoopoes and bee-eaters in the region more frequently, this paper shows us that on the whole, climate change is really bad news for wildlife.”

The paper and the indicator were produced by a team of scientists from the RSPB, Durham University, Cambridge University, the European Bird Census Council, the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, the Czech Society for Ornithology, and Statistics Netherlands.
The European Union has adopted the indicator as an official measure of the impacts of climate change on the continent’s wildlife; the first indicator of its kind.

The RSPB’s Dr Richard Gregory is the paper’s lead author. Commenting on the findings, he said: “We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now. The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one.
“Although we have only had a very small actual rise in global average temperature, it is staggering to realise how much change we are noticing in wildlife populations. If we don’t take our foot off the gas now, our indicator shows there will be many much worse effects to come. We must keep global temperature rise below the 2 degree ceiling; anything above this will create global havoc.”

Dr Stephen Willis, of Durham University said, “Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarises how biodiversity is changing due to climate change. Unlike the FTSE, which is currently at a six year low, the climate change index has been increasing each year since the mid-80s, indicating that climate is having an increasing impact on biodiversity.
“Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period. The worry is that the declining group actually consist of 75 per cent of the species we studied.”

The Climate Change Indicator combines two independent strands of work; bioclimate envelope-modelling, which predicts species range through climatic variables, and observed populations trends in European birds, derived from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme.

When a bird’s population changes in line with the projection, the indicator goes up. Species whose observed trend doesn’t fit the projection cause the indicator to decline.

Of the 122 species surveyed, 30 are anticipated to increase their range while the remaining 92 species are anticipated to decrease their range.
Dr Gregory added "This new work emphasises again the role played by skilled amateur birdwatchers right across Europe in advancing our understanding of the environment and the growing threat posed by climate change.”